Arlington County Virginia – State of the Market July 2009
August 14th, 2009 Categories: Arlington Dirt, Market Stats
At one point in time, I had been reporting a lot of market data – current listings, contracts, solds; percentage of list, days on market, absorption rates, etc… I still track a good part of it, but I felt like every time I turned around I was reporting more statistics – they really are only as good as you interpret them to be. What I REALLY realized is that they are most interesting when taking a step back and looking at what the bigger picture is. One snapshot in time is interesting, but doesn’t tell a story. So I thought today I would bring you up to speed with what’s going on – and in my opinion, it’s all good.
The news overall for Northern Virginia is that inventories are down (in some areas by as much as 20%+), unit sales are up, days on market are down and average sales prices are still slightly lower, while median prices are on the rise – can you say “market improvement?” While this is excellent news from an economic standpoint, I will say having been out with several buyers lately, it’s getting tougher and tougher to find “good” properties to purchase. Oh my, I can remember saying that in 2004.
Looking closer to home, in Arlington, take a look at this July 2009 housing market snapshot. It basically mirrors what we saw for the greater Northern Virginia area. What scares me a little bit is the absorption rates are under 3 months. Yep, you heard it. Rule of thumb is that those numbers indicate a return to a sellers market. We’ll see if it’s just a fluke as we are heading into a traditionally very sleepy month (August) – but we need to keep an eye on that.
On a final note, as a lot of you know, I track contracts ratified every week year over year to see how we’re doing. Except for one very strange dip the week after July 4th, I can definitely see the increased market activity over last year – some weeks in quantities like 20 more contracts ratified. So all signs are that 2009 is significantly better than 2008 and I would expect 2010 to steadily increase as we have been experiencing.
Message to buyers: Get out there – in order for the first time buyers to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit (and why wouldn’t you want to do that – it’s $8,000 of free money from the feds) you need to be settled by 11/30/09. I can make that happen!
Message to sellers: Inventories are low – get your home on the market without delay! Buyers (first timers, at least) have a deadline… September and October are excellent months in which to sell your home. I can get it listed and sold successfully!
Happy Friday! I wanna hear that phone ringing!
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Good to hear about the upswing Jennifer. I agree that there are many people who gloss over when throwing out real estate stats, even though I am not one of them. Massachusetts real estate is showing the same signs you are experiencing, and I am sure that year over year stats that the media reports will look more positive as the year continues. Last Oct, the financial markets had a perfect storm, including the housing sales numbers. There is lots of pent up inventory out there, and home sellers are starting to consider some options. Good post.